Environment Canada is predicting a warmer-than-normal end to the year for Alberta, with much of the province also experiencing drier-than-normal conditions.
The federal agency’s seasonal outlook for October through December indicates that almost all of Alberta falls into the above-normal temperature category, with the strongest probabilities in the central and northern regions of the province.
Seasonal outlooks compare average temperatures over these three months with historical data from 1991 to 2020. Additionally, Environment Canada is forecasting below-normal precipitation across much of Alberta during this same period. This suggests that the total rainfall and snowfall from October to December is more likely to fall within the driest third of historical conditions.
A separate map from Environment Canada that shows the historical accuracy of seasonal precipitation forecasts indicates that much of Alberta is in areas where predictions have not consistently performed better than random chance. However, forecast accuracy is higher in certain areas of the province. Northeastern Alberta, including the Fort McMurray region, is also expected to experience above-normal temperatures through the end of December.
The precipitation outlook shows that much of northeastern Alberta is likely to fall within the below-normal category. Nonetheless, due to the lower historical accuracy of forecasts in this region, this part of the outlook should be treated with caution.
